In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April’s mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they’ve held inside a range of just 0.04%.
Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday.
The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there’s a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow.