Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning’s data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an impact despite general preoccupation with war-related headlines.
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