Refinance rates move every business day, sometimes more than once. If you checked last week and haven’t looked since, the number you saw is already stale. This morning, the average 30-year fixed refinance rate is hovering around 6.38% for borrowers with strong credit, while 15-year refinance rates are closer to 5.72%. Those are national averages, and your actual offer will depend on a handful of factors we’ll get into. The bigger question isn’t just what today’s rate is; it’s whether refinancing at that rate makes financial sense for you.
Let’s break down where rates stand, what moves them, and how to run your own numbers so you can decide with confidence.
Where refinance rates stand right now
Here’s a snapshot of average refinance rates as of this morning. Keep in mind these are for a primary residence, single-family home, 20% equity, and a credit score of 740 or higher.
- 30-year fixed refinance: 6.38%
- 15-year fixed refinance: 5.72%
- 30-year fixed cash-out refinance: 6.75%
- 5/1 ARM refinance: 5.95%
These numbers can shift by 0.10% or more within a single day. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold rates steady has kept refinance rates in a fairly narrow range, but any hint of inflation or jobs data can push them up or down. If you’re watching the market closely, you already know that timing the absolute bottom is nearly impossible.
Why the advertised rate isn’t your rate
That 6.38% figure assumes a pristine borrower profile. If your credit score is 680, your rate could be 6.875% or higher. If you’re refinancing a condo rather than a single-family home, add another 0.25%. The advertised rate is a marketing tool, not a promise. Your real rate comes after a lender pulls your credit, reviews your loan-to-value ratio, and checks your debt-to-income ratio.
What actually determines your refinance rate
Lenders price risk. The lower the risk they think you pose, the better the rate they’ll offer. Here are the biggest levers:
- Credit score: This is the single most important factor. Moving from a 680 to a 760 score can shave 0.5% or more off your rate. Our guide on mortgage rates for excellent credit shows exactly how much a 760+ score saves you.
- Loan-to-value ratio: If you have less than 20% equity, expect a higher rate. Refinancing with 40% equity puts you in the best pricing tier.
- Loan amount: Very small loans (under $100,000) often carry higher rates because lenders have fixed costs. Jumbo loans also price differently.
- Property type: Investment properties, condos, and multi-family homes all carry rate premiums.
- Points: You can pay upfront to lower your rate. We’ll cover that below.
- Lender: Different lenders have different appetites. A credit union might beat a big bank by 0.25% on the same day.
If your credit score is the weak spot, spend a few months improving it before you refinance. Paying down a credit card balance or disputing an error can move your score 20 to 40 points, which translates to real savings on a refinance.
The break-even math that tells you if refinancing works
Refinancing isn’t free. Closing costs typically run 2% to 5% of the loan amount. On a $350,000 loan, that’s $7,000 to $17,500. You need to recoup that cost through lower monthly payments before you actually save a dime.
Here’s a simple example. Suppose you refinance a $350,000 balance from a 7.25% rate to today’s 6.38% rate. Your monthly principal and interest payment drops from $2,388 to $2,184—a savings of $204 per month. If closing costs are $8,000, your break-even point is 39 months ($8,000 ÷ $204). If you plan to stay in the home for at least four years, refinancing makes sense. If you might sell in two years, it doesn’t.
That’s the basic math. To get precise, run your own numbers with a mortgage refinance rate calculator. It will factor in your exact loan balance, new rate, and closing costs to show you the true break-even point.
Cash-out refinance rates: today’s numbers and when they’re worth it
A cash-out refinance replaces your current mortgage with a larger one and gives you the difference in cash. You might use that money to pay off high-interest debt, fund a renovation, or cover a down payment on another property. The trade-off is a higher rate, typically 0.25% to 0.5% above a rate-and-term refinance.
Today’s average 30-year cash-out refinance rate is 6.75%. On a $400,000 home with a $250,000 mortgage, you could pull out $50,000 (keeping 75% LTV) and your new loan would be $300,000. The monthly payment on the larger loan at 6.75% would be about $1,946, compared to $1,580 if you stuck with the original $250,000 at 6.38%. You’re paying $366 more per month, but you get $50,000 in cash. Whether that’s a good deal depends on what you do with the money.
Cash-out refinancing can be a smart move, but it’s easy to overpay for your own equity. Our article on cash-out refinance rates explains how to avoid common traps like paying points you don’t need or accepting a rate that’s too high for your credit profile.
Should you buy mortgage points to lower your rate?
Mortgage points, also called discount points, are an upfront fee that reduces your interest rate. One point costs 1% of your loan amount. On a $300,000 loan, one point costs $3,000. In return, your lender might lower your rate by 0.25%.
Let’s say you’re offered 6.38% with no points, or 6.13% if you pay one point. The lower rate saves you about $47 per month on a $300,000 loan. It takes 64 months ($3,000 ÷ $47) to break even. If you plan to stay in the home for more than five years, buying the point could pay off. If you’ll refinance again or sell sooner, you’d lose money.
Before you decide, use a mortgage points calculator to see what buying down your rate really saves you. It’s a simple tool that prevents an expensive mistake.
Rates vary by state more than you might think
National averages are a useful starting point, but refinance rates are local. Property taxes, closing costs, and lender competition all vary by state. In Texas, for example, closing costs tend to be higher because of title insurance and survey fees, but lenders compete aggressively on rate. Our breakdown of Texas mortgage rates covers the hidden costs that can eat into your savings.
How to shop for today’s best refinance rate
Getting the lowest rate isn’t about finding a magic lender. It’s about creating competition. Here’s a practical approach:
- Get quotes from at least three lenders on the same day. Rates change quickly, so a quote from yesterday isn’t comparable to one from today.
- Ask for the APR, not just the interest rate. The APR includes closing costs, so it’s a better apples-to-apples comparison.
- Compare lender credits versus points. Some lenders offer a higher rate with no closing costs. That can be a good deal if you plan to move soon.
- Check credit unions and online lenders. They often beat big banks on refinance pricing.
- Lock your rate when you’re comfortable. A rate lock protects you if rates rise before closing, but it can cost you if rates fall. Ask about float-down options.
Don’t overlook the fine print. A low rate with a 2% origination fee might cost more than a slightly higher rate with no fees. The only way to know is to compare Loan Estimates side by side.
The one number that matters most: your break-even point
Forget the headlines about whether rates are up or down. The only number that matters for your refinance is your personal break-even point. That’s how many months it takes for your monthly savings to cover your closing costs. If you plan to stay in the home longer than that, refinancing at today’s rates is likely a smart move. If not, you might want to wait, or look for a no-closing-cost refinance that trades a higher rate for zero upfront fees.
Run the numbers with your actual loan balance and the quotes you receive. If the math works, don’t wait for rates to drop another 0.125%. The savings you gain from refinancing now often outweigh the potential benefit of timing the market. And if rates do fall later, you can always refinance again, as long as you’ve built enough equity and your break-even point on the first refinance has passed.