Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend by 10 days. In addition other escalations continue to add up based on overnight reports. Bonds (and stocks and oil) are now in a pattern of fading (a trading term akin to “calling the bluff of”) ostensibly hopeful de-escalation developments until they see something real and lasting.
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